Nile Water Science & Engineering Journal

VOLUMES

Volume: Volume 2, 2009

Issue: Issue 1 , 2009, September

Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Flows at Dongola Using Statistical Downscaled GCM Scenarios

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Mohamed Elshamy

Topic: Enviromental aspects of river engineering
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Citations: 20 | Reads: 1140 | Downloaded: 6

Abstract

This study was initiated with the objective of evaluating the relative magnitude of uncertainties across emission scenarios, due to downscaling. The s read more

This study was initiated with the objective of evaluating the relative magnitude of uncertainties across emission scenarios, due to downscaling. The study analyzed the change in Nile flows at Dongola resulting from two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) using the results of 3 GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4, and HadCM3).It is to be mentioned here that a GCM is a global circulation model (GCM) that could depict different pictures for the future precipitation over the Nile basin, and consequently could expect the discharge of the river. A 10-member assemblies of statistically downscaled precipitation scenarios for the 2010–2099 period was designed for the whole Nile basin from the output of these experiments. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) were calculated for the base-period (1961-1990) and for three 30-year time slices in the future (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) using the Penman-Montheith equation. Rainfall and PET scenarios were used to drive a fine-scale hydrological model of the Nile Basin. Observed rainfall from the base-period was used to determine the parameters of the statistical downscaling model (SDM) for the different GCMs. The results showed that the ECHAM4 predicts a steady increase in Nile flows in the future while CGCM2 underestimates the flow in the base-period. On the other hand, an increase was predicted by years 2020 and 2030. The expected flow is similar to the observed mean. It was also predicted that the flow might decrease rapidly in case of the A2 scenario. However, the HadCM3 showed a slight trend of increase to the flood season flows and a slight trend of increase for the base-period flow. This counterbalances each other so that the total annual flow does not change. The results also indicated that the uncertainty range, across the models, is larger than that across the two studied scenarios. The range of differences between the scenarios is model dependent and time dependent. The uncertainty due to downscaling is also large and is proportional to the flow. It was thus concluded that the implications of the changes might be huge for the water resources planning and management within the basin and particularly for Egypt. less

Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change for the Blue Nile Basin, Using a RCM Nested in a GCM

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Eman Soliman

Topic: GIS and Remote Sensing applications in river engineering
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Citations: 33 | Reads: 472 | Downloaded: 5

Abstract

This paper establishes a basis for evaluation of climate changes impacts within the Blue Nile River subbasin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model read more

Impact of Climate Change and the Human Activities on Land Degradation in Arid and Semi-arid Regions

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Muna M. Elhag

Topic: Enviromental aspects of river engineering
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Citations: 3 | Reads: 381 | Downloaded: 1

Abstract

This research was initiated with the objective of analyzing the climate change and climate variability in the Butana area, north - eastern part of Sud read more

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change of the Water Resources of the NDURUMU Nile SubBasin

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Astere NINDAMUTSA

Topic: Enviromental aspects of river engineering
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Downloaded: 1

Abstract

This research was initiated with the objective of estimating the level of impact of climate change on the watershed’s water availability. Climate ch read more

Global Warming Impacts on Water Quality in the Nile Delta, Egypt

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Mona Radwan

Topic: Enviromental aspects of river engineering
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Abstract

In this study, a simplified model was calibrated against a relatively more complex model with the objective to achieve simulations with the simplified read more

Hydrological Response of a Catchment to Climate Change in the Upper Beles River Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Girma Yimer

Topic: Enviromental aspects of river engineering
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Citations: 50 | Reads: 904 | Downloaded: 5

Abstract

A Statistical downscaling model was developed and validated using large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Centre for Environmental P read more

Analysis of the Long-Term Flows of the Nile River

On Wednesday, 1st of July, 2009. 11:16:44 AM
By Ageel Bushara

Topic: River morphology
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Downloaded: 4

Abstract

This study focuses on the Nile Basin in order to determine the climate change impacts on the basin. Discharge data of 35 years (1965 to 2000) were acc read more

This study focuses on the Nile Basin in order to determine the climate change impacts on the basin. Discharge data of 35 years (1965 to 2000) were accumulated and used in this study. The discharge time series of the Nile River and its main tributaries; Blue Nile, White Nile and Atbara River within Sudan were analysed. The data were filtered and missing data were computed by means of statistical regression. The discharges data were analysed for each hydrologic year (June and ends in May). In order to have accurate results of the analysis, two statistical software (Spell stat, FREQ) were used. Similar results were obtained. All time series were tested for the absence of linear trends, the stability of the mean and the stability of the variance. The change point test (often called Pettitt test) was applied to the time series to check whether there is a step trend or not. The time series was checked for the absence of step trends for the probability higher than 0.8. The analysis of the time series of the 1stdischarge station on the Blue Nile, Eddeim, showed insignificant linear trend. An increase in the annual yield of the Blue Nile was evident. The same was found for the discharge station of the White Nile at Malakal, but with a decrease in the annual yield of the White Nile. For both stations i.e Eddeim and Malakal, each time series was found to be stable in the mean as well as in the variance. The time series analysis of the Upper Atbara River stations showed similar results to that observed for the Blue Nile. The last station in Sudan, Dongola, showed a linear insignificant decrease and the time series was also found to be stable in both, the mean and the variance. It was thus concluded that the changes that were observed in the Nile River and its main tributaries, within the Sudan, are partly affected by the climate change phenomena. Other changes could be attributed to the upstream demand, land use changes and to the high evaporation rates, which affected the hydrological regime of the Nile basin. less

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